Publications

Comorbidity Exposure-Window Definitions and Multidimensional Disparities in Long COVID Risk: Evidence from a U.S. National Cohort (2020–2024)

This paper addresses two key scientific questions: to determine whether pre-infection comorbidities alone are sufficient to estimate the risk of developing long COVID (LC); and whether these estimates vary across later pandemic phases and population subgroups.

Information: Chen Y, Chen Z, Ge Y, ..., Shen Y*. (2026). "Comorbidity Exposure-Window Definitions and Multidimensional Disparities in Long COVID Risk: Evidence from a U.S. National Cohort (2020–2024)." First-round revision.

Estimating semiparametric models for spatiotemporal data with complex dependence structures

This paper proposed a novel K-nearest-neighbor weighted local linear regression approach for estimating spatiotemporal semiparametric models.

Information: Chen Y, Chu T, Zhou C, Shen Y, and Huang H. (2026). "Estimating semiparametric models for spatiotemporal data with complex dependence structures." Peer review.

Joint modeling and dynamic ensemble forecasting of influenza vaccine responses from complex longitudinal trajectories

This paper developed a novel joint modeling and dynamic ensemble forecasting method.

Information: Chen Y, Zhang Y, and Shen Y. (2026). "Joint modeling and dynamic ensemble forecasting of influenza vaccine responses from complex longitudinal trajectories." First-round revision.

Estimating direct and indirect treatment effects and ranking treatment regimens in spacetime-dependent cluster randomized trials: a Schistosomiasis case study

This paper investigated direct and indirect treatment effects and ranked treatment regimens in spacetime-dependent cluster randomized trials

Information: Chen Y, Wen X, Luo F, Yang Y, and Shen Y. (2025). "Estimating direct and indirect treatment effects and ranking treatment regimens in spacetime-dependent cluster randomized trials: a Schistosomiasis case study." Third-round revision.

Epidemiology of influenza before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China: An observational study from Zhejiang, China (2010–2023)

This paper investigated epidemiology of influenza using change-point detection and interrupted time-series models.

Information: Chen Y, Luo F, Ling F, et al. (2025). "Epidemiology of influenza before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China: An observational study from Zhejiang, China (2010–2023)." Second-round revision.

A robust and efficient tail-adaptive approach for change-point detection in semiparametric models

Published in SCIENCE CHINA Mathematics, 2026

This paper proposed a novel tail-adaptive CUSUM method for detecting structural changes inherent in complex datasets.

Recommended citation: Chen W, Chen Y, Jing B, Zhou W, and Hu Y. (2026). "A robust and efficient tail-adaptive approach for change-point detection in semiparametric models." SCIENCE CHINA Mathematics. 69.
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Mapping spatial and social inequities of long COVID across the United States: A retrospective cohort study

Published in The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2026

This paper investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of long COVID incidence.

Recommended citation: Chen Z, Li B, Chen Y, Liu J, et al. (2026). " Mapping spatial and social inequities of long COVID across the United States: A retrospective cohort study." The Lancet Regional Health - Americas. 56: 101401.
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Predicting influenza vaccine-elicited antibody responses with practical point system

Published in Vaccine, 2025

This paper developed point system for influenza vaccination.

Recommended citation: Shen Y, Sung M, Ge Y, Chen Y, Carlock M, et al. (2025). "Predicting influenza vaccine-elicited antibody responses with practical point system." Vaccine. 64: 127737.
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Identifying key aspects to enhance predictive modeling for early identification of schistosomiasis hotspots to guide mass drug administration

Published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2025

This paper developed prediction methods for the first (baseline) year to identify hotspots of Schistosomiasis.

Recommended citation: Chen Y, Luo F, Martinez L, Jiang S, and Shen Y. (2025). "Identifying key aspects to enhance predictive modeling for early identification of schistosomiasis hotspots to guide mass drug administration." PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 19(7): e0013315.
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Development and external validation of the FluScoreVax risk score for influenza that incorporates vaccine status

Published in The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine, 2025

This paper developed a risk score for influenza diagnosis.

Recommended citation: Ebell M, Chen Y, Luo F, Shen Y, et al. (2025). "Development and External Validation of the FluScoreVax Risk Score for Influenza That Incorporates Vaccine Status." The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine. 38(3): 401-410.
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Composite quantile regression for a distributed system with non-randomly distributed data

Published in Statistical Papers, 2025

This paper proposed a novel estimation method for composite quantile regression.

Recommended citation: Jin J, Hao C, and Chen Y. (2025). "Composite quantile regression for a distributed system with non-randomly distributed data." Statistical Papers. 66(1): 1.
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Effective and robust clustering for spatiotemporally dependent data

Published in Metrika, 2024

This paper investigated clustering problems for spatiotemporally dependent data.

Recommended citation: Wang F, Chen W, Hu Y, and Chen Y. (2024). "Effective and robust clustering for spatiotemporally dependent data." Metrika. 1-24.
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Efficient and effective calibration of numerical model outputs using hierarchical dynamic models

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2024

This paper developed hierarchical dynamic models with advanced variational Bayes and ensemble algorithm for addressing bias-correction.

Recommended citation: Chen Y, Chang X, Zhang B, and Huang H. (2024). "Efficient and effective calibration of numerical model outputs using hierarchical dynamic models." The Annals of Applied Statistics. 18(2): 1064-1089.
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Social mixing and network characteristics of COVID-19 patients before and after widespread interventions: A population-based study

Published in Epidemiology & Infection, 2023

This paper investigated social mixing and network characteristics of COVID-19 patients.

Recommended citation: He Y, Martinez L, Ge Y, Feng Y, Chen Y, et al. (2023). "Social mixing and network characteristics of COVID-19 patients before and after widespread interventions: A population-based study." Epidemiology & Infection. 151: e141.
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Additive dynamic models for correcting numerical model outputs

Published in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2023

This paper developed additive dynamic models with high efficient algorithms for statistical bias-correction.

Recommended citation: Chen Y, Chang X, Luo F, and Huang H. (2023). "Additive dynamic models for correcting numerical model outputs." Computational Statistics & Data Analysis. 107799.
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Generalized Pareto distribution change-point detection model and its applications in modeling return period prediction

Published in Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2021

This paper is about change point detection for extreme events.

Recommended citation: Hu Y, Chen Y*, Wang X, and Liu W. (2021). "Generalized Pareto distribution change-point detection model and its applications in modeling return period prediction." Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice. 41(09): 2379-2391.
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A likelihood ratio model for change point detection of generalized Pareto distribution

Published in Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, 2021

This paper develops the theoretical framework for change-point detection in extreme events.

Recommended citation: Hu Y and Chen Y. (2021). "A likelihood ratio model for change point detection of generalized Pareto distribution." Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica. 44(04): 553-573.
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